Notes
23 Jan 2022

Uncertainty. Scenarios.

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The breakout groups rushed towards sunlit spots on that cold winter morning in Jaipur. More than a hundred participants were huddled to engage in a Large Scale Intervention Process. As 2005 was unfolding, we were drafting scenarios for India at 2025. Academics, economists, historians, designers, journalists, politicians, scientists and industrialists were sharing their views. This was not an exercise to predict the future, but an effort to outline the many alternatives that may unfold before us. To simulate different scenarios, we had to explore what was critical and uncertain. Appreciating what was uncertain and its effects turned out to be more valuable than our opinions about what tomorrow could look like.

2021. Mood in the conference room was sombre. The pandemic had introduced new uncertainties. We were discussing the upheavals in micro-financing. How to rebuild trust? How to treat delinquencies? How to mobilise capital? My mind was wandering towards Sati in Rayagada. Her family had invested hard labour of a few generations to build basic stability and resilience in their health, education and livelihoods. Two years of unprecedented events would have shred this foundation into uncertainties. She must be facing more difficult questions. How to fend starvation? How to prevent eviction? How to sustain another year? Can I develop scenarios that help Sati deal with her critical uncertainties rather than mine?

Exploring: Why Scenario Planning is Key to Creating a More Resilient World, Davos 2022

Image Credits: Photo by Sydney Rae on Unsplash

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